I truly wish you the best of luck!! I know exactly what you are going through.
A few things really jump out at me that should weigh heavily in your favor.... the fact the child has been with you all along will weigh very heavily with the judge. Courts do not like to make changes that will negatively affect the child so they like to maintain things the way they are. That is a huge positive for you.
The second is the fact Dad has had supervised visitation and then had to have it again. That will weigh heavily in your favor.
and third...Dad is in Connecticut. Courts are not likely at all to take the child from the parent that has been with them all along and send them out of state to a parent who had to have supervised visitation.
I would never say it will definitely go one way or the other but you have alot of positives going for you should it go to court.
Not that a mediator has final say, but when we had ours, and my ex was fighting for primary custody, the mediator told him "that will never happen." He saw right through my ex. I hope your ex shows up!! Don't be surprised if he doesn't.
Stay strong :0)